Trends in politics can turn on a dime. And things appear to be turning in New Hampshire in preparation for the 2012 GOP primary. With these twists and turns, the “Big Mo” seems to be favoring John Huntsman. With this in mind, following are my predictions for the New Hampshire 2012 GOP Presidential Primary:
- Mitt Romney – 33%
- John Huntsman – 18%
- Ron Paul – 18%
- Newt Gingrich – 13%
- Rick Santorum – 11%
- Rick Perry – 3%.
Romney’s support is falling under the scrutiny provided by the Gingrich campaign. But the big beneficiary of Mitt’s fall seems to be Huntsman. I believe that Huntsman will finish about 8 votes ahead of Ron Paul. Whatever the spread between #2 and #3, it will be VERY close. The “Establishment” cannot allow Ron Paul to finish in second place. And Huntsman is harmless to Romney in the remainder of the early primary states. So look for Huntsman to edge out Paul.
Newt’s attacks on Romney will yield a modest boost to his support, vaulting him into the fourth place slot. He will also receive the “chickenhawk” vote. I believe the 55-64 year old males will vote overwhelmingly in support of Newt, boosting him up to the low teens, say 13%.
Rick Santorum will not exceed 11%, and it could even be as low as the high single digits. It all depends on how much he opens his mouth on college campuses. His responses to college students and the younger voters have not been respectful of their ability to reason, despite the fact that he encourages them to use reason. It will be a less than stellar night for Rick Santorum.
Rick Perry has conceded New Hampshire. He will be lucky to get more than 3%.
I hope to be able to write in this space…”See, I told you so.”
We’ll find out on Wednesday morning.
The 2012 Presidential Election is fast approaching
The GOP race is now a field of 4 with only Romney, Gingrich, Paul, & Santorum still standing. Who will be the next candidate to exit the race & who will emerge as the eminent GOP nominee?
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{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }
Okay. I missed on one point. The Ron Paul Revolution was too big for the Establishment GOP to mitigate through modestly altered counts, and bigger than I expected. Not only did Ron Paul finish second in the GOP primary, he finished second in the Democratic Primary, with 4% of the vote.
By comparison, Ron Paul did better in the Democratic primary than Rick Perry did in the GOP primary. And as a result may have received enough votes to secure one delegate at the Democratic Convention.
Ron Paul’s campaign may truly be a Revolution. We’ll see if it has legs in the South soon.
No matter what ends up happening over the next few months, the fact of the matter is that the media has learned that giving Ron Paul the silent treatment – as they have done since 2007 – is no longer working. This is why conservative talking heads (enter Malkin, Linbaugh, Morris, et al) have now upped the ante and are trying to rub this guy out. More of the liberal media has taken notice as well, lead by CNN, and are now giving Ron Paul negative air time. But, like I’ve said before, what most of these people never seem to get is that even the negative publicity can validate Paul’s candidacy and cause a lot of people to pay attention who either didn’t give him a thought or who didn’t care previously.
Ron Paul is not going away during this campaign any time soon. There are a lot more people out there who care about the Constitution than what we would be lead to believe. As I’ve stated before, I’m not predicting that Ron Paul will win the GOP nomination – there are too many landmines that have been laid in his path. But, until proven otherwise, I am predicting that he stays on board as a 3rd Party candidate. Maybe this time the Tea Party crowd and others who claim to hold the Constitution dear will have the guts to vote their consciences instead of wimping out and voting down party lines, as they did with the Scott Brown disaster.
I believe that Rick Santorum, John Huntsman, and Rick Perry’s days are all numbered. It will be a three man race for a while (Romney, Gingrich, Paul). I believe that Ron Paul will not win the nomination due to the fact that the Establishment media – liberal and conservative alike – will not allow it. Or maybe he won’t win it simply because he and his thinking don’t have enough support yet. But I believe (hope) that he will run as a 3rd party candidate, though this means that he will undoubtedly cause a split in the conservative vote, thus giving Obama a possible red carpet back to the throne. But I honestly don’t care. I’m sick of politics as usual and, as shown in my article about Newt Gingrich (Ronmey is very similar), am convinced that any Republican other than Ron Paul will be exactly that. They would be a “conservative” version of the Establishment puppetry and continue to throttle our constitutional rights, but while wearing a different costume. At least with Ron Paul I will have the opportunity to vote my conscience. Perhaps others will do the same and will show up in huge numbers. This way, even with a Ron Paul loss, the nation and its beloved media will get the message, possibly resulting in a newly galvanized support and growth of constitutional leadership, the way our Founders intended it, as opposed to grotesque partisan politics, which has its proverbial foot nailed to the floor.