Prediction 2010 mid-terms: More Jobs

by dfunzy on January 10, 2010

What’s going to happen in the 2010 congressional elections? Will the GOP take the Senate? Will the GOP make gains in the House of Representatives? Will the GOP net a pickup in the governors races? We could look at the polls. We could see who is up and who is down for the minute. But as we know, situations change from minute to minute. In some states the GOP is up by a point or two, in others the Dems are down by a point or three.

The Dems are operating at a disadvantage, as the party in power during continued hard times, they are the target of gripes. The wars seem to be going on forever, the economy hasn’t recovered quickly enough. But the Dems have one, great big advantage — the GOP. Any prediction that the GOP are going to have great gains in the 2010 elections ignores the fact that the GOP keeps shooting itself in the foot. By appeasing the Tea Party crowd and seeking a very, small, tiny, tent of like-minded people, the GOP is alienating the woman vote, the African-American vote, the Hispanic vote, and with GOP chairman Steele recent racist “Honest Injun,” remark, the GOP is thumbing its nose at native Americans.

But I have a 2010 election prediction: Victory in the 2010 mid-term elections will go to the candidates who have a plan to increase jobs. This is obvious. Shall I repeated it? Jobs means victory in the 2010 mid-term elections. Victory in 2010 mid-terms will mean more Jobs.

Democrats plan to return to their core strength and to get a Jobs Bill bill passed in the next few months. The focus according to Senate leadership sources will be on Small business job creation, infrastructure jobs, green jobs, and public works jobs. This Dem emphasis on jobs, and the GOP emphasis on “Party purity” will result in success for the Dems.

{ 16 comments… read them below or add one }

Benjammin January 12, 2010 at 2:56 am

Jobs are always more important that any health care bill. Or, at least they are to the people I know. Had the politicians really been so concerned about jobs, rather than winning elections, they would have addressed the jobs issue a VERY long time ago.

I still say that they waited on jobs until now because they know it has a much greater chance of turning the elections their way.

Reply

dfunzy January 11, 2010 at 9:22 am

Ben, you wrote: “Moot point. Lieberman has very seldom voted against his party. Had the Dems wanted to pass a jobs bill before now, they could have done”

You haven’t been following the Lieberman saga on health reform, or you wouldn’t have made that statement.

I wished the had tackled a jobs bill first, but they took of health care reform before a jobs bill. If you have been following hos the GOP has tied up the Senate, you wouldn’t have made that comment.

Things in politics aren’t as simple as we would like them.

Reply

Benjammin January 11, 2010 at 9:12 am

Moot point. Lieberman has very seldom voted against his party. Had the Dems wanted to pass a jobs bill before now, they could have done it.

Reply

dfunzy January 11, 2010 at 5:45 am

Ben;
Because of the Senate rules on the use of the filibuster, the majority needs 60 votes to get any bill through, that a strong minority opposes. There are 58 Dem and 2 Independents who vote with the Dem in caucus. One of whom is Sen.Joe Lieberman who opposed the bill until it was gutted, its popular provisions were removed. Although there are 58 Dem, senators, a number of them from Southern and border states aren’t progressive, but moderates. Some would call them “conservatives”. They had to be persuaded to sign on. The GOP senators filibuster tactics prevented the bill from moving through the Senate until the Dem leadership could muster the 60 votes. The filibuster put a hold on the consideration of other Dem “reforms”.

Here are some links so you can read up on how the GOP is able to stop bills from moving through the Senate.
GOP senators to block defense bill in bid to delay health-care …
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/…/AR2009121703585.html

Briefing on Filibuster and Cloture
“Even with the new cloture rule, filibusters remained an effective means to block legislation, since a two-thirds vote is difficult to obtain. …”
http://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/common/briefing/Filibuster_Cloture.htm

Recent U.S. Senate history of the Filibuster rules
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filibuster#Recent_U.S._Senate_history

Reply

Benjammin January 11, 2010 at 5:14 am

D –

The DEMOCRATS have had a MAJORITY in both the House and Senate, as well as the Presidency (hence the super-majority I made reference to) since the last election cycle. For you to say,
“The answer could be that the GOP has tied the Senate up in knots, so that little has gotten through Congress since the Health Reform debate.”
is insane. There is no way the Repubs could be responsible for ANYTHING either passing or NOT passing in Congress over the course of the last 12 mos.

Keep in mind that I’m not defending either party, rather pointing out what should be obvious to all those who aren’t completely blinded by partisan politics!

Reply

dfunzy January 11, 2010 at 4:48 am

I am standing in January 2010 looking up the road to November 2010, making predictions on the US midterms. The only guidance I have are trends and history. I also know where the two parties stand. I know and understand some of their baggage and some of their support. But the best I can do is to make a good guess. When I say who will come out on top in the mid-terms, or whether I make a longer stretch and say who will win the 2012 election, again, I am only making my best guess. If I say the Dem will win the mid-terms and why, or that Obama will win in 2012, and why, or that the GOP will sneak out a victory, it is not holy writ.

Reply

consti January 11, 2010 at 2:23 am

D,

The dems can talk jobs until they are blue in the face. Fact is 7.2 million are unemployeed and the jobs aren’t going to materalize by throwing more money at the problem. I expect to hear a lot of noise about jobs saved or created like over the summer with a lot of the proof contradicting that fact. I seem to recall that those sun shine numbers were artifically inflated by the administration. Touting job creation will be a loosing battle for the dems. The public isn’t as dumb as you would like.

Reply

dfunzy January 11, 2010 at 1:35 am

Erick wrote:
“How can you possibly say that jobs are a priority for the Dems? ”

Eric,
I am reporting what the Dem leaders, such as U.S. Senator Richard J. Durbin, siy, that will be the focus during the coming months.

Reply

Erik the Red January 11, 2010 at 12:52 am

dfunzy,

No disrespect. But this sounds downright loony. How can you possibly say that jobs are a priority for the Dems? They have done nothing for the unemployed for the past year. It sounds like you are typing this hoping that when people read it they will believe it just because they can view it on screen. What it comes down to is that the people who believe this will do so only because they are in agreement with you beforehand, not because you successfully made your case.

If jobs were an isolated case, that would be one thing. I would just chalk it up to Obama trying to lasso and pull in a runaway Bush train. But when we consider that this is merely one of many already-broken promises including some to some key constituents on topics like abortion and gay rights, then it’s just further evidence of a President who resembles a kid that is wearing his dad’s suit and thinks he is something more than he is when, in reality, he is in over his head.

Reply

dfunzy January 11, 2010 at 12:29 am

J wrote –”The blacks vote 93% Lib every election, regardless. They have been brainwashed into thinking the Libs care about them. Until they realize they aren’t weak and don’t need they merciful help of the white Lib heroes to give more and guarantee current hand outs, they are doomed to stay in the resentful rut they find themselves.”

J;
The reason why African-Americans vote 93% Dem is more complex than you present it here. The core issue is race. In 1964, after the Civil Rights Acts were enacted, the GOP, candidate Barry Goldwater opposed the Civil Rights law. The GOP openly solicited Southern segregationists to join the GOP. Many like Strom Thurmond switched parties and the South switch from Dem to the GOP. LBJ got 94 percent of the African-American vote that year, still a record for any presidential election. Before that African-Americans gave GOP candidates, Dwight D. Eisenhower 39 percent in 1956, and Richard Nixon, 32 in 1960.
And have supported a number of GOP candidates in governor races.
For example Mike Huckabee when he first ran for Governor of Arkansas, won 48 percent of African American voters.

Reply

consti January 11, 2010 at 12:16 am

Benjamin

While I agree with you I want to emphasise that the stimulus was supposed to address the issue. Sad fact is we shouldn’t have to be talking about another job bill. Obama said by passing it unenjoyment wouldn’t go past 8%

D,

I understand the point you are making but I think you are overestamating their impact. Faced yet again with the lesser of two evils I don’t think vate wise it will matter.

As for trying to blame ubstructionist republicans for nothing getting done besides healthcare I will just remind you that the dems could have set a polarizing piece of legislation aside to address jobs. They chose not to instead they bickered over holdouts in their own party and how to bribe those holdouts.

J byron

You know I hadn’t thought of it that way. But I seriously doubt the american public will buy that snow job. The dissatisfaction is too high for that tripe to work. But you are right that is one way it can be played

Definately peoples lives shouldn’t be played with vis-a-vis jobs but it has been a political chip for decades and will probably be for the forseeable future.

Now back to playoffs :-)

Reply

J Byron Swain January 10, 2010 at 11:44 pm

D,

The blacks vote 93% Lib every election, regardless. They have been brainwashed into thinking the Libs care about them. Until they realize they aren’t weak and don’t need they merciful help of the white Lib heroes to give more and guarantee current hand outs, they are doomed to stay in the resentful rut they find themselves. You would have the Conservatives join the “poor blacks can’t make it without help from Government” bandwagon to garner maybe 5 more percent of the 13% black vote and alinate a huge portion of the principled base. Good plan, thanks for the advise. We see blacks as equals. Someday they will see the difference in greater numbers, but it’s hard to turn down what a group sees as special advantages in the form of cash and special status.
As with healthcare, the dems know how to bride and buy votes.

C,

Your wrong. They have held back way more than half of the “emergency” stimulus money.
They are going to stategically start releasing more and more as we get closer to the 2010 election.
Also, prepare yourself for the dems and “The One”, to start “talking” about helping American “small” business, the engine of our greatness.
Nevermind that almost all stimulus money so far has gone to HUGE business and invested in government power, socializing as much american big player business as possible.

Reply

dfunzy January 10, 2010 at 11:43 pm

“Question – Why have “Jobs” not been an issue until now? ”

That is a good question. The answer could be that the GOP has tied the Senate up in knots, so that little has gotten through Congress since the Health Reform debate.

Reply

dfunzy January 10, 2010 at 11:40 pm

“Ranting on the effect of tea-partiers is a red herring.”

My point is that the Tea Party movement is crippling the GOP, and is helping the Dem, as it weaken the GOP. And if the GOP does poorly, it will be because of their involvement with the Tea Party. In off year elections, usually the party out of power make significant gains. The GOP may fall far short because it is hobbled by the Tea Party.

Reply

Benjammin January 10, 2010 at 11:24 pm

Question – Why have “Jobs” not been an issue until now?

This is an issue that SHOULD have been dealt with 18-24 mos ago, but was ignored by everybody on the stage. It was ignored by the President and Congress in Jan, choosing instead to dole out billions of $$$ and favors to Wall Street w/ the Stimulus package. It has been ignored by EVERYBODY until now, when unemployment is hovering around 10% and the rel unemployment numbers are north of 17%.

People lives, livelihoods, families and jobs should NOT be a political issue, saved until the mid-term elections in order to help the power-mad politicians try to hold onto their office. Democrats and Republicans alike are to blame for this. Democrats moreso, however, because in the last 12 mos as they’ve had the congressional supermajority they have been lusting after for a very long time. They had the votes from Jan 20, 2009 until now to pass any kind of JOBS program that they wanted. However, they chose to spend all their political capital on the Stimulus (which has failed miserably) and put all the blame for the poor economy onto Bush & Co – waiting, instead, until the mid-term election to do anything serious about unemployment so they could take full credit for it. Had anything been done before now, there would be those who said it was simply an extension of Bush’s policies (hogwash) and the Dem’s would not reap the full benefit of having saved the world.

By waiting until 2010 and politicizing an issue that should NEVER be politicized, every politician up for re-election in November is running the risk of losing their shirts this fall. The American people truly to do see the politicians in D.C. for what they are – blood-sucking parasites, willing to destroy the country in order to perpetuate their own greed and avarice.

Reply

Consti Tution January 10, 2010 at 10:44 pm

DFunny,

Every “green job” created with government money in Spain over the last eight years came at the cost of 2.2 regular jobs, and only one in 10 of the newly created green jobs became a permanent job, says a new study released this month. The study draws parallels with the green jobs programs of the Obama administration.
President Obama, in fact, has used Spain’s green initiative as a blueprint for how the United States should use federal funds to stimulate the economy. Obama’s economic stimulus package,which Congress passed in February, allocates billions of dollars to the green jobs industry.
But the author of the study, Dr. Gabriel Calzada, an economics professor at Juan Carlos University in Madrid, said the United States should expect results similar to those in Spain:
“Spain’s experience (cited by President Obama as a model) reveals with high confidence, by two different methods, that the U.S. should expect a loss of at least 2.2 jobs on average, or about 9 jobs lost for every 4 created, to which we have to add those jobs that non-subsidized investments with the same resources would have created,” wrote Calzada in his report: Study of the Effects on Employment of Public Aid to Renewable Energy Sources.

Then there is also this little piece….
Obama’s Green Jobs Program: $135,294 Per Job…
http://blogs.investors.com/capitalhill/index.php/home/35-politics/1136-obamas-green-jobs-program-135294-per-job

As much as you dream of a Democratic win in 2010 I have the feeling you will be sorely dissappointed. Ranting on the effect of tea-partiers is a red herring. It’s the American public that is ticked off, not just a fringe group. And I will remind you the stimulus was supposed to keep unemployment below 8%…. well we’re 10.2% and rising. Promises broken? I’d say so especially since there was no time alloted to read the stimulus bill to begin with, and only HALF has been spent so far. Now they are going to use the money for airport scanners…. can you define slush fund?

Reply

Leave a Comment

{ 1 trackback }

Previous post:

Next post: