Sen. Chris Dodd, D-CT, who has represented Connecticut in the Senate for more than three decades, announced today that he will not run for re-election next fall and is retiring from the Senate. So did Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-ND. Also, Gov. Bill Ritter, D-CO has announced that he will not be seeking re-election this cycle.
Sen. Dodd is facing an arduous challenge from several Republican contenders, an environment Dodd describes as “the toughest political shape of my career.” Dodd also cited other factors, including his recent battle with cancer, his sister’s death and Sen. Ted Kennedy’s death. He stated, “None of these events either individually or collectively is the cause of my decision not to seek re-election, yet together these challenges have given me pause.”
My guess is that Dodd understands and recognizes that he simply cannot win re-election next November and is choosing to bow out now rather than face a potentially humiliating loss at the polls. The question, then, is this: How many other veteran Senators and Representatives will find themselves in a similar situation, but throw their hat in the ring anyway and lose?
Besides Dodd and Dorgan, Sen. Ted Kaufman, D-DE (replaced V.P. J Biden) and Sen. Roland Burris, D-IL (replaced Pres. B. Obama) have both announced that they will not seek full terms. As a result, there are 4 seats in the Senate that are up for grabs.
As for governorships, the Democrats will try to maintain their 26-24 edge as we enter into a decade in which they will oversee the redrawing of congressional and legislative districts in their respective states.
Both parties appear to expect a tight race for the North Dakota Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Dorgan, which leans more toward the GOP, as well as for the governor’s seat in Colorado – a pivotal swing state.
What does all this mean? It means that nothing is certain in 2010. Democrats and Republicans alike will be fighting for their political lives and fortunes. The Senate may or may not have a 60-40 majority after all the votes are counted, and the House will almost certainly have a smaller Democrat majority than they currently hold.
What does it mean for Pres. Obama’s agenda? It means that not a single item remaining on his legislative program is guaranteed. If the Democrats maintain control, that should be enough to at least partially maintain the status quo with few alterations. If the Republican’s are the big winners in November, the president will have to at least consider some bipartisanship in order to get anything pushed through.
The 2012 Presidential Election is fast approaching
The GOP race is now a field of 4 with only Romney, Gingrich, Paul, & Santorum still standing. Who will be the next candidate to exit the race & who will emerge as the eminent GOP nominee?
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My prediction is that, as the winds blow, if there starts to be a feeling of a Republican sweep (ala 1994), Obama and the Democrats are going to click it into 5th gear and try to get as many things passed in the meantime as possible.
As you mentioned, none of those soon-to-be-vacated seats is guaranteed to be taken over by a Republican. Particularly in New England. This said, the number of disgruntled constituents is swelling and, though many will never admit it in a conversation, they may just demonstrate their distaste when they cast an anonymous vote.
We’ll just have to wait and see.