There are conflicting reports about the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il. On Monday it was widely reported that the Communist dictator is suffering from pancreatic cancer, yet some analysts and pictures released today of a factory inspection trip by Kim refute that. Given the tenuous state of his country’s future and the secrecy that has always marked any details of Kim’s life, I could certainly see why North Korean media would be circulating that he was fine.
Pancreatic cancer patients typically have only 5 years at most to live after diagnosis; it is a death sentence. With some of the recent acts undertaken by Pyongyang , I would tend to believe that the reports are true. Kim is acting like a man who has nothing to lose. The well being of his fellow countrymen has never been an overriding concern for him, but Kim has been even more reckless by playing chicken with the world’s nuclear powers and is continuing to raise the stakes. If he is dying, he will not be there to pay the consequences for his actions and risk losing power, so there is no loss of face for him if the cost of not backing down is too high.
Also, Kim has always been suspicious and alert to any potential threats to his position and authority, which has been the impetus for many deaths and executions among his enemies. This caution has also manifested itself as an iron clad control of the media and propaganda outlets; Kim is well practiced in making perception into reality. His nuclear actions and flaunting of world disapproval have been presented as a show of strength to his country and a source of national pride. This has been particularly handy for keeping the support of the public and military, thereby discouraging any potential coups.
Kim’s recent naming of his youngest son Kim Jong-Un, of whom very little is known, at a time when there was no clear front runner, is telling as well. Kim Jong- Il was never one to share power lightly, so the timing for naming Kim Jong-Un gives us a glimpse of the truth, as it would be the only way the the elder Kim could set up a smooth succession of family power, should he be dying, and shore up support for the dynasty.
So, if the reports are true, what would Kim Jong-Il’s death mean for North Korea? Would it pave the way for a younger leader who could be a progressive force for change in a failing system of government? Would it stop the expansion of North Korea’s nulear program? Don’t count on it.
Michael O Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, feels , ‘A competition for power is perhaps more likely in the event that the Kims try to become reformers’”and maybe that s one more reason that they re not trying,’ he said. ‘Kim is well aware that if his son becomes the dove in the equation, as the inexperienced, doe-faced youngster with a reformist agenda, he doesn t stand a chance inside of a North Korea with these hardliners in positions of authority.’
Above all else, the Kims are a Communist equivalent to a monastic dynasty and the dynasty’s survival would come first and foremost in their minds. So no matter what the personality of Kim Jong-Un is like, world leaders should plan on more of the same in terms of rhetoric and defiance from North Korea. As long as Pyongyang’s actions are tolerated and gain them good PR at home, it is in the Kims’ interest to do more of the same.
Like father, like son…
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