According to the above Gallup Poll, President Obama’s popularity in the second year of his term resembles President Reagan’s popularity in the second year of his first term.
There are four possible ways to look at this:
(1) Obama, like Reagan, has been a victim of unfair criticism from his naysayers;
(2) Obama, like Reagan, did a lousy job his first year;
(3) Obama, like Reagan, inherited a mound of trash from the prior president;
(4) Obama is destined to be a liberal god just as Reagan is a conservative god.
(These are not necessarily facts, just food for thought and items for discussion.)
I suppose that we could throw in a fifth possibility for good measure and that is that polls don’t necessarily mean a lot except that people basically only remember what happened two minutes ago and have a “what have you done for me lately?” mentality.
The good news for Obama is that it is still early in his reign. The bad news is that more than half of the presidents on the above graph were not elected to a second term, though we shouldn’t include President Kennedy for obvious reasons. More bad news is that of the last nine presidents, only Reagan’s approval rating was lower on his second year than is Obama’s. More good news is that Reagan was re-elected (though winning against Mondale, which isn’t saying much) and went on to make an indelible mark in history. I suppose that making a “good mark” in history is entirely in the eye of the beholder. But at least Reagan was in office as the Cold War was ending and the White House road map has an irremovable crinkle. Obama still has at least almost three full years to leave his imprint in the textbooks. The only question is, of course, is if the world will be a better place after he leaves than when he entered.
If you ask most liberal Americans – whether they truly believe it or not – they would likely tell you “yes”. That Americans are more favorably viewed by the citizens of the world already and that we are no longer the “inter- national bad guys”. They would tell you that Obama helped us to weather the storm of the meltdown of the banking industry and, though the unemploy- ment rate is still a concern, that many people have regained confidence.
If you ask most conservative Americans – whether they truly believe it or not – they would likely tell you “no”. That America is now viewed as “weak” and that the world leaders who used to shudder at the sound of Bush’s voice have now boldly crawled out of their holes to start trouble without any second thoughts of a wimpy nation who is either so wrapped up in their own troubles to notice what is going on around them or is too much of a kiss up to make any ripples. They would tell you that the banking problem is still alive and well and that our new president has quadrupled the deficit in one year (Reagan tripled the deficit, though not in one year), meaning that he didn’t need the prior president’s help to wreck the economy. These Obama detractors would claim that they can see through the facade of “recovery” and “loan modifications” and can still see the impending doom.
At the very least, I believe that the Obama honeymoon with many of his supporters is over. Though he is still apparently loved by a lot of people here and abroad, the increasing nervousness and distrust is becoming more visible everywhere. The President rode in on his proverbial white horse during the latter part of 2008 and the first couple of months after taking office. But now it appears that his horse has been sent to the glue factory. Perhaps he would consider taking that glue and patching some holes. However, I wouldn’t fall for the “I’ll fight Wall Street” thingy since it has been pretty much established that he has been created by Wall Street insiders, as evidenced by the members of his cabinet.
I can’t help but to be curious how, in 25 years from now, President Obama’s numbers compare to the several presidents before and after him. At the rate he’s going, I wouldn’t be terribly enthusiastic. But only time will tell.
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{ 16 comments… read them below or add one }
handicrafts,
“Doesn’t matter who you vote for.”
Apathy for our elected officials is exactly what got us here in the first place. And it’s that mentality those who seek power want from those they seek power over. Way to enable socialism and surrender your right to vote. Don’t vote people they are all crooks! Your vote doesn’t count anyway! What’s one vote among millions?
Seriously?
I can’t believe I am going to agree with a couple of the bloggers on here with my next comment. But if you don’t vote then really you don’t have a right to ***** about any of them. At least in my opinion. Vote left, right, middle, up, or down that’s your call. But do your duty as a citizen and vote.
India,
Though I appreciate your comment, I’m not sure why you would tell me to “get over it”. Most of this article consists of a comparative analysis and is largely objective based on data that I have supplied from what I consider to be reliable sources. If you truly hate politics, then you are quite possibly chiming in on the wrong site.
This is typical of politics. When republicans are in power we americans ***** about how bad a job there doing. Now the democrates are in power and we ***** about how bad of a job there doing also. Who ever has control of the wheel everyone will ***** about. Just politics and thats why I HATE dealing with it. Politicians all say they will change something. They won’t. Get over it. Doesn’t matter who you vote for.
Kindra,
“People have been freaking out because Obama’s job approval is lower. I would think this would be good news. It means we’re not going into war, we’re not going into disaster, it means everything is peaceful so all people can do is be ultra critical of the President.”
Or it could also mean that people have been growing increasingly disillusioned.
Kindra, that would depend entirely on how he reacted to the proposed scenario, wouldn’t it?
Not sure how fair it is to base his job on the approval ratings since at least 5 of those Presidents had a chance advantage in their second year – an attack on the U.S. or the start of a new war. It’s a pattern that’s evident everywhere. When there is an attack on the country, the people of that country become more loyal and cling to whatever leader they have regardless of the job they’re doing. People have been freaking out because Obama’s job approval is lower. I would think this would be good news. It means we’re not going into war, we’re not going into disaster, it means everything is peaceful so all people can do is be ultra critical of the President.
I guarantee you that if tomorrow another attack as big as Pearl Harbor or 9/11 happened, that Obama’s approval ratings would sky rocket.
Droo the Bloo,
Though I am diametrically opposed to almost everything you say politically, I also understand that you are sincere and intellectually honest.
Based on the definition of cynical that you provided, I suppose that does indeed fit me and my overall view of the nature of man. But let’s face it, I wouldn’t be this way if mankind weren’t inherently evil.
I’m not sure how important it is for me to have “political friends”. As I’ve mentioned to you before, my views often estrange me from both liberals and conservatives. When I talk about big govt, as an example, the liberals go crazy (as has been evidenced by comments on this very blog), when I talk about my disdain for the war and/or for the Patriot Act, many conservatives kick me to the curb. This is why the only political friend I need is that little guy called my conscience who forces me to be true to myself.
Peace
P.S.
I’ll admit biased is an overused meaningless term. Everyone is biased. I’d like to think I’m slanted toward the optimistic and I think it’s it’s healthy.
But I’d say cynical is a valid label for your current world view in the context of politics.
cyn·i·cal
“distrusting or disparaging the motives of others. bitterly or sneeringly distrustful, contemptuous, or pessimistic.”
I know that you try to be balanced but your attempts to show balance by slandering everyone on either side just leaves you with no viable political friends.
But that’s OK, political minds can turn on a dime… and hey, maybe it will be my mind changed. Stranger things have happened. We share a couple of conspiracy theories in common already and I’m still open to listening to your narrative if you’ll continue to consider mine.
Sorry for the poor spelling. I rely on spell check and forgot to use it! Can you delete the previous post and use this one instead?
I didn’t post the charts to refute anything you said, but to add to it.
And I want to make it clear, the reason I respond to your posts is as an outlet or expression. I have no other ulterior motive other than that the topic of religion and politics is as intriguing to me as it obviously is to you. I suspect the brief history we have in common is a testament to why this is true. The word “philosophy” means to love truth, and perhaps God has lead us both down this similar path to intersect again for a reason, because we share this love.
So I want to be clear that when I talk of conservatives and use expressions like “difficult to argue with someone who dislikes you not for what you think, but for who you are,” or “There’s a sense of entitlement, of righteousness … and indignation for anyone else,” it’s very important to me that you understand that I am not necessarily thinking of you in these terms. This is not an underhanded slight or attempt to turn the issue of discussion back on you in any way. If I was talking about you in particular I would be direct about it.
The reason I bring religion into the political arena myself is because I hear conservatives do it all the time, and it reminds me very much of my own struggles within the church. In my previous post I alluded to the fact that I think JILC was a cult. Well, after leaving that particular assembly, I found that, low and behold, the same struggle against self-righteousness, over-zealous conservatism, alienation, and hypocrisy was being waged in the world in it’s politics as well!
You can only imagine how frustrating and perplexing it has been for me to find that many of the same people that I know who also considered their experiences with occultist Christianity (not all Christianity) to be negative, had continued the same traditions and philosophy later in life. Like those suffering from Stockholm syndrome, they have turned into sympathizers with their antagonists, perpetuating the haunting legacy with a world-view that is narrow and closed minded and ultimately self-righteous. Since it is my assertion that the entire New Testament was essentially a message of liberalism and against legalism, this grieves and confuses me.
And there aren’t that many people I can talk to about it that would really understand what I’m saying. I mean, I know you won’t agree with me on all points but at least I get the feeling that you have the same issues on your mind. And, I also feel like your opinion is logical, with perhaps the potential to balance mine, to provide a reflection that is likely to be relevant to me.
Anyway, I just want you to understand my motivation. Peace.
Drew,
I find your forceful comments kind of surprising since this article was basically written from a 3rd-person perspective, until the very end. And even those statements were mild, as far as I’m concerned. The “opinions” of liberals and conservatives came from tons of conversations with both.
Regarding speaking from emotion, it often goes both ways.
Of course you would find my opinions “biased and cynical”, because they differ from yours. I choose to call them “informed and realistic”.
Regarding your Gallup poll, the one that I supplied at the top of this article obviously is a combination of the 3 graphs you supplied resulting in an overall 50% popularity rate in early January. Those graphs refuted nothing but only confirmed mine, which makes sense since I doubt that Gallup would contradict itself. The main point is that the Liberal and Conservative groups that are represented show that the President’s poll numbers have been steadily declining since July. Independents actually show a slight spike. But again, the overall poll numbers have been dropping and, as of 2 months ago, were right around 50%. In addition, though Obama is obviously still very popular among liberals, his numbers are dropping nonetheless.
//If you ask most conservative Americans – whether they truly believe it or not – they would likely tell you “no”. That America is now viewed as “weak” and that the world leaders who used to shudder at the sound of Bush’s voice have now boldly crawled out of their holes to start trouble without any second thoughts of a wimpy nation who is either so wrapped up in their own troubles to notice what is going on around them or is too much of a kiss up to make any ripples. //
This is why I don’t ask conservatives about such things. I find their reasoning generally biased and often devoid of reasoning.
Hey, Erik, I think YOU are a wimp! You’re a kiss up! You’re too wrapped up in your troubles! Am I endearing you to my opinion yet? I didn’t think so.
Besides, every time I engage in a lengthy conservative vs. liberal debate online, I am reminded that conservatives are among the crowd of people who think Ivy Leagers and Intellectuals are BAD things. And even if they don’t say it out-loud, you can sense it in their debate, which is so often fraught with emotion and seldom with facts.
And you know, it’s difficult to argue with someone who dislikes you not for what you think, but for who you are. Among many unaware Christian conservatives, this is to be expected. Their entire faith is based upon the teachings of (non-elected) leaders who they follow with unwavering passion straight to the depths of hell. It was hypocrisy, after all, that really earned the harshest criticism from Jesus, but “In seeing they might not see” somehow always applies to someone else. There’s a sense of entitlement, of righteousness, that extends itself generously to those “within” the sphere of accepted Christian dogma, and unequivocal reproof or indignation for anyone else.
Your discussions are sometimes an exception, though I still find them extremely biased and cynical. It is my in-person discussions with you that lend your beliefs some shred of credibility in my mind.
But anyway, here’s another chart for you. Can you incorporate this and some related comments into your article?
http://www.nationaljournal.com/img/njgraphics/100104_blumenthal.gif
From this article:
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/mp_20100104_1650.php
J Byron,
I never suggested that he would pull it off.
I like your optimism and strong bias in favor of balance without pre-judgment.
However, I feel Obama’s path is set in the manipulation of this country towards the “progressive ” model economic. I have to gauge the future by the past, which paints a bleak picture of compromise of Constitutional principle and no compromise of socialistic special interest movement.
For those of you who are into polls, I have added Rasmussen to the mix:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_month_by_month
This “unavoidable wall” that you mention? Of course the intention is to hit it full speed so that the govt can bring you a solution to the wreckage. It is also known as creating the poison and the antidote in the same laboratory. (There I go again.) But I digress.
There are obviously going to be incidents that happen during the Obama presidency that he has no control over. It will be his handling of these things which will determine his place in history. There will also be (and have been) things that he does have control over. Hopefully, the truth will continue to be sought while his in office and conducting business so that the books will give an accurate account of what happened. He still has a chance to be a great president, but by doing what is right, not for what is self-promoting.
Erik,
I am in a bad mood tonight, I’ll mention that before I comment.
I believe we are headed full speed towards a brick wall in a Yugo.
“Even as many Americans still struggle to recover from the country’s worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, another crisis – one that will be even worse than the current one – is looming, according to a new report from a group of leading economists, financiers, and former federal regulators……..America is in a DoomsDay Cycle….is more than predictable, it is inevitable,” Johnson says in the report, commissioned by the nonpartisan Roosevelt Institute.”
ABC News 3-02-2010
The current powers at be know it if I do, and they seem to be lead footing the accelerator all the more. Somebody has something in mind, but I fear the solution is seen “after” we hit to unavoidable wall.
It’s late, time for a shot of fine whiskey.