How Mexico Should Handle Climate Change Challenges

Guest Post By Amber Davis
Government Relations Specialist, Progressives for Immigration Reform

http://www.progressivesforimmigrationreform.org/take-action/pfir-bloggers-unite/

How Mexico Should†Handle Climate Change Challenges

According to research published July 26 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the impact of climate change on crop yields may force as many as seven million Mexicans to emigrate to the U.S. over the next 70 years. Michael Oppenheimer of Princeton University, an author of the study stated that, “climate changes predicted by the global circulation models would cause several percent of the Mexican population to move north if all other factors are held constant.”

Oppenheimer predicted that for every 10 percent of lost crop yields, 2 percent more Mexicans will leave that country, and most will relocate to the United States. By the year 2080, Oppenheimer projected that between 1.4 and 6.7 million Mexican adults will emigrate as a result of reduced farm productivity.

Oppenheimer’s team looked at Mexican census data from 1995 to 2005, along with statistics on crop production and climate data. According to Oppenheimer, researchers “lined up the climate changes, and the crop production changes . . . with the census data,” which allowed them to infer Mexico’s emigration rate.

During the past two decades, Mexico has begun experiencing environmental changes that have deeply impacted its farming population. During the last few years Mexico has continued to endure its most severe drought in six decades. Mexico experienced a severe drought starting in 1994 that persisted throughout this period. Elizabeth Fussell of Washington State University argues that these lengthy drought spells make farmers more “susceptible to these climate effects since there was no time to adapt to them. Migration is one of several options rural households face when they confront diminishing livelihoods such as a decline in crop yields.”

Of course, climate change is just the latest pull factor that has been encouraging massive migration in the northern Mexico region. The rapid rise of maquiladora and other manufacturing in Mexican border regions during the 1990s increased demand for labor enormously and encouraged large-scale migration to northern Mexican states. During the early 1990s the Mexican economy was also in major crisis as urban unemployment burgeoned and the peso devalued. At the same time there were significant displacements of farmers as a result of the agricultural liberalization that was a part of the NAFTA agreement. These factors caused a shortage of jobs in the interior of Mexico and further encouraged migration to border regions and the US.

Like his recent predecessors, Mexican President Felipe Calderon has not been able to adequately address the social tensions that these large-scale displacements have caused. He has, however, shown more commitment to curbing environmental threats than several previous Mexican administrations. President Calderon has repeatedly said that climate change is the greatest challenge facing his nation. He wants Mexicans to commit to cutting their own emissions in half by 2050. He has urged the setting up of a global “Green Fund,” which would receive contributions from all but the poorest countries in the world to finance environmentally friendly projects.

Mexico has also taken steps to encourage the development of renewable energy. Around 17% of its electricity now comes from hydro dams. Iberdrola, a Spanish utility, is building a giant wind farm at La Ventosa (“the windy place”), an area in the southern state of Oaxaca, which features gusts strong enough to topple trucks. This will provide power to 200,000 people, and avoid the emission of 150,000 tons of carbon dioxide each year. Calderon has also been attempting to encourage Q-Cells, a German company, to set up a factory to manufacture solar panels and adopt solar power in northern Mexico.

Despite these advancements Mexico must still implement a number of policy changes in order to cope with the socioeconomic and environmental challenges it will face this century. One of the most obvious strategies Mexico must embrace is curbing its population growth. Despite experiencing one of the most dramatic declining fertility rates in the world since 1970, at 2.5 children per woman, Mexico’s birthrate is still much higher than nations in the industrialized world.

Mexico’s population topples over the 100 million mark and the country does not currently posses the infrastructure or resources to properly provide for such a large populace. Population declines would place less pressure on agricultural production within Mexico and provide young families with greater opportunity to invest in education and career pursuits. Of course, such radical shifts in culture in a deeply conservative country will take time and a great deal of leadership by Mexican political and social elite. Considering the growing conservative stance Americans have been taking towards immigration, it is unlikely that America will continue to serve as a safety valve for Mexico as the country deals with climate change challenges.

Tagged as: climate change, immigration, Mexico

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