Earlier this week Sen. Byron Dorgan (D- ND) and Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn) announced that they would not seek reelection. Both are long serving member of the United States Senate as well as being leaders in their party. The loss of the leadership of these two men will be strongly felt in the Democratic Party. The notion these two retirements mark the beginning of a Democratic collapse, or the first crack in the façade from the pressure of Tea Party conservatives, and disaffected moderate voters, would require the work of a mental contortionist to explain. If anything is true, speaking solely of the Senate, the Democratic party has much better prospects than does the Republicans in 2010.
As it stands right now there are 58 Democrats in the Senate, 2 Independents (Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut) and 40 Republicans. Two Democrats have announced that will retire, the above mentioned Mr.’s. Dorgan and Dodd. Mr. Dodd was facing an almost impossible reelection bid in his state. Even though he was cleared of ethical violations in his financial dealings the stigma of that scandal along with his writing of language in the bank bailout bill that protected bonuses has left him exceedingly unpopular. The odds were that he would lose his seat to a Republican challenger. Now that he will step aside, and the states Attorney General, the most popular Democrat in the state, will run for the state, it is a safe, though not certain bet that that will remain a Democratic seat. Mr. Dorgan’s seat offers a hazier picture. Mr. Dorgan is the kind of Democrat that the states of the upper Midwest and plains have trended toward, main street populists with long records of public service. Mr. Dorgan, has served the people of North Dakota as a statewide elected official for four decades and always advocated for the middle class. While North Dakota has trended Republican in recent years another main street Democrat similar to Mr. Dorgan could hold that seat. The most logical assessment would be that the Democrats would cold Dodd’s seat, but lose Dorgan’s. That would give the Democrats a net loss of one seat and a 57, 2, 41 split in the Senate.
The Republicans situation is much more precarious. Six Republicans have announced that they will be seeking other offices or retiring all together In order to maintain the 40 seats they have now the Republicans will need to hold seats in New Hampshire, Ohio, Missouri, Kentucky, Kansas, and Florida. Republicans hold almost no seats in New England, holding only one house seat and three Senate seat the one currently being vacated and two in Maine. The odds of a Republican holding that seat seems very remote though not impossible. Of the remaining states Kansas and Kentucky would seem to be safely in the Republican column. Ohio is a very strong labor state with a large number of union members. It has also trended Democratic in recent years going narrowly for Obama in 2008 and already having one Democratic Senator and a Democratic Governor. The same can be said in Missouri where there is a Democratic Governor and a Democratic Senator. This is a state where McCain won with less than 50% of the vote. While it’s less likely that a Democrat will win there, it is a possibility.
Florida presents the most interesting case. The Republican chairman of the State of Florida recently stepped down because that primary has become so divisive. The state of the Republican primary in Florida can be most charitable described as political self immolation. The current Republican Governor, a moderate is being challenged by a conservative political outsider that has split the Republican Party. That split has all but broken a state party that used to be one of the most reliable in the GOP.
Taking all this together it can be surmised that Democrats will hold Illinois, Delaware, and Connecticut, and win in Ohio, Florida, and New Hampshire. Republicans will pick up North Dakota, and hold Kansas, Kentucky, and Missouri. If these predictions hold, which is not impossible, but election day is a long way away and a lot can change between now and November, the potential split of the Senate could be 60 Democrats, 2 Independents, and 38 Republicans.
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{ 7 comments… read them below or add one }
Consti,
I have checked a great many news outlets and I can only find two references to party switching, Parker Griffith in Alabama who has switched to the Republican side, and Arlen Specter who became a Democrat. I will take your word for it that there are two others ( I am assuming in the House) that are switching parties. If you’d provide me with their names, I’d like to look into this further before commenting on it. The only thing I am aware of at this point is that several members of the House, Bobby Bright of Alabama, Travis Childers of Mississippi, Walt Minnick of Idaho, and Chris Careny of Pennsylvania, have been approached about changing to the Republican side, but none have indicated they would.
With regard to your comment. I didn’t mention the party switching I was aware of because the scope of this piece was very narrow, focusing on Senate seats where the incumbent was retiring. Arlen Specter was not mentioned because he is running for reelection, though I think he will lose in the primary to Joe Sestak. Parker Griffith was not discussed because he is a house member.
There is a lot of time between now and the November election. A lot can change and you will have people throwing their hats into the political arena. Like I said in an earlier comment, it will be survival of the fittest in many cases.
Just one little point I’d like to make here. Where is the mention of the 3 democrats that stated they will switch parties? I think you will see a couple more jump ship before the election. That sort of throws a monkey wrench in your numbers. Just saying…
No-Spin Zone???
I had no idea Bill O’reilly owned this site.
No-Spin Zone…kinda amateurish, don’t ya think???
Lizbeth –
” The Republicans situation is much more precarious. Six Republicans have announced that they will be seeking other offices or retiring all together.”
Nothing has been made of the 6 Republican’s leaving office? Did you even read the article???
I notice that while much has been made on this site about the 2 Dems leaving the Senate, nothing has been made of the six GOP who are leaving…So much for the No-Spin zone on here…
JFesta,
I’ll start off reiterating how I appreciate the research you put into your articles.
You hit it on the head in the last paragraph. November IS a long time away and right now, it’s the Democrats’ election to lose. However, if the poll numbers/approval ratings continue to move the way they did the final 8 months of 2009, an 11-seat flip is not inconceivable (It would actually need to be larger than that considering the distinct possiblity that at least a couple of GOP seats will be lost). This is not necessarily wishful thinking on my part because, as I’ve mentioned before, if these theoretical 11 victors have a lousy Freedom Index track record, then you might as well leave the Democrats in. But from a pure partisan perspective, this 11-seat flip is in no way outside of the realm of possibility.